Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.655528 2.820092 2.999811 3.212738 3.461016 3.745230 4.101200
2025-03-09 2.416489 2.632972 2.883740 3.202477 3.607918 4.124457 4.868181
2025-03-16 2.244142 2.482847 2.769508 3.150857 3.666250 4.378729 5.536184
2025-03-23 2.162108 2.424994 2.751245 3.204530 3.855798 4.840296 6.698902
2025-03-30 2.046510 2.312599 2.648928 3.128043 3.842293 4.986168 7.395909
2025-04-06 1.945645 2.210479 2.549691 3.041941 3.796727 5.062730 8.000574
2025-04-13 1.869846 2.135225 2.479474 2.988107 3.790251 5.202171 8.863771
2025-04-20 1.837800 2.114358 2.479890 3.034855 3.949338 5.692826 11.293735
2025-04-27 1.825697 2.118360 2.513622 3.133382 4.211802 6.502353 17.296416
2025-05-04 1.786079 2.082582 2.488106 3.136327 4.303183 6.969554 25.260611
2025-05-11 1.750128 2.049780 2.464364 3.139077 4.393853 7.485095 47.603522
2025-05-18 1.693208 1.985550 2.391311 3.054992 4.300768 7.439462 63.391540
2025-05-25 1.661783 1.957049 2.371468 3.061458 4.400759 8.074508 NaN
2025-06-01 1.629104 1.925507 2.345491 3.055555 4.475519 8.702082 NaN
2025-06-08 1.588729 1.881458 2.298378 3.009231 4.454741 8.972177 NaN
2025-06-15 1.574446 1.873713 2.305531 3.057855 4.656605 10.404767 NaN
2025-06-22 1.533437 1.826138 2.249240 2.988604 4.569725 10.378719 NaN
2025-06-29 1.492477 1.777553 2.189754 2.910419 4.453136 10.141266 NaN
2025-07-06 1.460320 1.740860 2.147505 2.861416 4.403091 10.265809 NaN
2025-07-13 1.450763 1.736492 2.155185 2.903975 4.586660 12.048320 NaN
2025-07-20 1.451557 1.747076 2.186637 2.993445 4.915754 16.167903 NaN
2025-07-27 1.434099 1.730146 2.173336 2.996115 5.009413 18.797895 NaN
2025-08-03 1.417472 1.713930 2.160467 2.998607 5.104201 22.439028 NaN